Tensions deepen within AFC/M23 as political ambitions clash with military realities in eastern DRC

The latest United Nations expert report on the Democratic Republic of the Congo sheds light on deepening divisions within the Alliance Fleuve Congo/Mouvement du 23 mars (AFC/M23), a key armed group operating in North Kivu and South Kivu. The document, submitted to the UN Security Council, reveals a movement torn between political ambitions and military constraints, with competing factions vying for control over resources and territorial expansion.

The report highlights that while political figures like Corneille Nangaa and Joseph Kabila reportedly harbor ambitions to extend their influence to Kinshasa, the military leadership of the AFC/M23 remains firmly opposed to operations beyond their traditional strongholds in eastern DRC.

Military command under strain as internal rivalries intensify

The command structure of the AFC/M23 continues to be a point of contention. Despite challenges to his authority, “General” Sultani Makenga retains control of the group’s military operations. However, his leadership is increasingly contested by both internal factions and external actors, including Rwanda, which has historically provided support to the movement.

The political wing, led by Bertrand Bisimwa and Corneille Nangaa, maintains its grip on the group’s direction, while military commanders receive instructions and logistical backing from Rwandan authorities and intelligence services. This dual structure has created a fragile balance within the AFC/M23, where political aspirations clash with military pragmatism.

Resource disputes and territorial divisions fuel internal strife

The report underscores a widening rift between political leaders advocating for a broader military campaign and combatants focused on consolidating control over key territories. The AFC/M23’s occupied zones in eastern DRC have been divided into three “defense zones,” each under the command of a different military leader:

• “General” Baudoin Ngaruye oversees the first zone, covering territories including Nyiragongo, Rutshuru and Lubero.
• “Brigadier General” Justin Gacheri Musanga commands the second zone, encompassing Masisi and Walikale.
• “General” Innocent Byamungu leads the third zone, which includes areas in South Kivu.

These divisions have exacerbated tensions, particularly over the allocation of resources and preferential treatment accorded to certain officers and fighters, predominantly of Tutsi ethnicity. The report notes grievances among rank-and-file members regarding unequal distribution of benefits and opportunities within the movement.

Force composition and external influences

The AFC/M23’s fighting force is estimated at approximately 30,000 combatants, a figure that includes:

• A core group of former members from the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) and the historic M23.
• Recruits mobilized since 2021, drawn from the diaspora and refugee camps in Rwanda.
• Former members of the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC), National Police, and local defense units who either joined voluntarily or were captured following the fall of Goma.

The report emphasizes that the group’s military and political leadership continues to receive strategic and logistical support from Rwandan government agencies, further complicating efforts to resolve the conflict through diplomatic means.

Diplomatic deadlock and humanitarian crisis

The internal divisions within the AFC/M23 coincide with stalled diplomatic initiatives, including the Washington Agreement and the Doha Process, both aimed at brokering peace between the group and the DRC government. Disagreements over the interpretation and implementation of these agreements persist, with each side accusing the other of bad faith.

The failure to advance these peace processes has contributed to the ongoing deterioration of the security and humanitarian situation in eastern DRC. Civilians continue to bear the brunt of the conflict, caught between armed groups, government forces, and regional actors with competing interests.

The report’s findings underscore the urgent need for coordinated international action to address the root causes of the conflict, including resource mismanagement, ethnic tensions, and external interference. Without decisive steps to bridge the divides within the AFC/M23 and restore trust in diplomatic channels, the prospects for peace in eastern DRC remain bleak.