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Tchad’s economic outlook: 5.3% growth projected for 2026

N’Djamena hosts pivotal CNEF meeting to shape Chad’s economic trajectory

The National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF) of Chad convened its second ordinary session of 2026 in N’Djamena on July 21, under the leadership of Tahir Hamid Nguilin, State Minister overseeing Finance, Budget, Economy, Planning, and International Cooperation, who also chairs the Committee.

Attendees included Guibolo Fanga Mathieu, Minister of Commerce and Industry, Saleh Bourma Ali, Deputy Minister attached to the Finance portfolio with responsibility for Economy, Planning, and International Cooperation, Yvon Sana Bangui, Governor of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), alongside other statutory members of the CNEF.

During the session, participants analyzed global, regional, and national macroeconomic conditions, assessed 2026 economic prospects, and reviewed medium-term projections. The findings were presented by Idriss Ahmed Idriss, Secretary General of the CNEF and National Director of the BEAC.

Global tensions shape economic forecasts

The final communiqué highlighted ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the intensification of protectionist policies across multiple regions as key factors influencing international economic conditions.

Within the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), economies demonstrated resilience despite a slight slowdown. The Committee noted controlled inflation rates, improved fiscal and external balances, and strengthened foreign exchange reserves.

Chad’s GDP growth projected at 5.3% in 2026

Domestically, the CNEF forecasts a 5.3% expansion in real GDP for 2026, up from 5.1% in 2025. This growth is expected to be driven primarily by the non-oil sector, even as oil production faces a projected decline.

The Committee also observed a continued easing of inflationary pressures, with the inflation rate expected to drop to 0.5% in 2026 from 2.6% in 2025, signaling an improved macroeconomic environment.

Monetary and banking indicators show positive trends

Members noted a significant increase in net foreign assets by the end of March 2026, coupled with a rise in money supply and a comfortable level of import coverage by reserves.

The banking sector and non-bank financial institutions in Chad posted encouraging results, with the aggregated bank balance sheets growing by 4.9% year-on-year as of March 2026.

Budget execution and financial inclusion discussed

Regarding public finances, the CNEF reviewed the state budget execution as of June 2026. Additional topics included the report on the Effective Global Rate (TEG) for the first quarter of 2026, findings from audits conducted at banking institutions, and a technical report on the opening of central bank branches across the country.

Concluding the meeting, the Committee reaffirmed its commitment to closely monitor economic and financial indicators to safeguard macroeconomic stability and foster national growth.