During a recent online discussion hosted by journalist Stanis Bujakera Tshiamala, prominent researcher Jason Stearns advocated for a political compromise involving the M23 movement in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). He dismissed the notion that international pressure could compel Rwanda to simply withdraw from the ongoing conflict.

When questioned about the perceived imbalance of international pressure, which appears to be directed more at Kigali than Kinshasa, Stearns initially acknowledged, « The ideal resolution for this conflict would involve applying pressure solely on Rwanda to ensure its complete withdrawal. » He referenced the 2013 precedent, where a combination of diplomatic pressure on Kigali and military action against the M23 led to the movement’s military defeat, though this was not « followed by a coherent peace process. »

However, Stearns asserted that this particular scenario is no longer viable. « We are not at a point where we can simply expect Rwanda to withdraw, » he stated, noting that even diplomats in Washington are unequivocal on this matter: « We are not applying pressure on Rwanda with the expectation that Rwanda will simply pull back. » His firm conclusion was: « A political and diplomatic solution is required, not a military one. »

Consequently, Jason Stearns urged that pressure also be applied to Kinshasa to facilitate a compromise. He carefully emphasized that such a compromise should not, in his view, « jeopardize the integrity or sovereignty of the DRC. »

Regarding the specifics of this potential agreement, the researcher pointed to « various previous peace processes, » adamantly ruling out the integration of any individuals « guilty of crimes against humanity or war crimes. » For other M23 leaders, however, he suggested « finding a way to address the grievances they have put forward. »

He underscored a point he considers pivotal: « The core of the issue is to be able to offer something to the M23 leadership. » Jason Stearns reiterated that he and his colleagues had, from the outset, characterized the movement as a Rwandan aggression, stating, « We have written about and condemned this aggression… it is a Rwandan aggression. » He then added a pragmatic assessment of the military reality: the M23 currently controls « territories equivalent to Belgian territory » and has, in his estimation, lost « hundreds, probably thousands of soldiers » in eastern DRC. Given this situation, he concluded, « The military and diplomatic pressure is simply not sufficient to impose a defeat. »