The countdown has begun for the Cameroonian economy. The Hilli Episeyo, a crucial floating liquefaction unit anchored off Kribi since 2018, is set to exit national waters in July 2026. This departure coincides with the expiration of the contract linking its owner, Golar, with the Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures (SNH). In its economic review for the first quarter of 2026, the National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF) identifies this withdrawal as a primary factor contributing to an anticipated economic slowdown, alongside geopolitical tensions and the underperformance of several key export sectors.
According to detailed projections from the CNEF, Cameroon’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand by approximately 3.2% in 2026, a decrease from the 3.5% recorded a year prior, further decelerating to 3.1% in 2027. An overarching view within the same document presents a slightly more optimistic trajectory, forecasting 3.3% followed by 3.2%. Under both scenarios, the underlying principle remains consistent: the extractive sector will exert downward pressure on growth, contributing a negative 0.4 percentage point in each of the two fiscal years. The petroleum GDP, which encompasses all hydrocarbon-related activities, is projected to plummet by 16.1% in 2026 and an additional 18% in 2027.
LNG sector already declining before the vessel’s exit
The cessation of the Hilli Episeyo operations arrives in an already fragile market environment. Revenues generated from liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports stood at 350.2 billion FCFA in 2025, a notable decline from 381 billion in 2024, 421 billion in 2023, and a peak of 622 billion in 2022. This represents an 8.1% year-on-year contraction. This downward trend persisted into the beginning of the year: during the first quarter of 2026, Cameroon’s total exports dropped by 23.6% to 606.9 billion FCFA, with LNG exports specifically falling by 28.4%, and crude oil by 14.4%.
Despite the decline, LNG still accounted for a significant 11.4% of Cameroon’s export revenues in 2025. The withdrawal of this floating production unit thus deprives Yaoundé of a foundational asset at a critical juncture when other key industries are also experiencing difficulties. Over the same period, sales of cocoa and its derivatives plunged by 37.7%, timber exports decreased by 11.5%, aluminum by 53.7%, and crude rubber by 16.7%. The cumulative effect of these sectoral downturns significantly amplifies the impending impact of the gas sector shock.
Current account under pressure and delicate budgetary choices
The nation’s macroeconomic balances are poised to absorb a substantial shock. The CNEF forecasts a current account deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2026, widening further to 6.1% in 2027, a stark contrast to the estimated 3.2% in 2025. The budget deficit is expected to follow a similar trajectory, reaching 1.7% and then 2.1% of GDP. These projections also factor in a global trade slowdown, escalating freight costs, and a moderate increase in public revenues.
Furthermore, rising global oil prices present a classic dilemma for the executive branch. Maintaining stable fuel prices at the pump would necessitate increasing fuel subsidies, incurring an immediate budgetary cost. Conversely, adjusting retail prices upward would likely fuel inflation and erode household purchasing power. While the CNEF refrains from recommending a specific course of action, it underscores the extremely narrow margin for maneuver available to policymakers.
Yoyo-Yolanda and new blocks: no immediate relief
The SNH is actively pursuing a strategy to diversify its upstream portfolio, aiming to prepare for the post-Hilli Episeyo era. A primary milestone in this strategy is the transboundary Yoyo-Yolanda field, shared with Equatorial Guinea. Its geological resources are estimated at approximately 2,500 billion cubic feet, with an investment requirement nearing 4 billion dollars. However, the timeline for this project remains contingent on the finalization of technical and commercial agreements, the successful mobilization of financing, and the construction of dedicated infrastructure.
Concurrently, the state-owned company is proceeding with the allocation of new exploration blocks within the Rio del Rey and Douala-Kribi-Campo basins. Yet, entering into production sharing contract negotiations does not guarantee the discovery of commercially viable reserves, nor does it ensure rapid production. The central risk, therefore, lies in the duration of this transition period: the longer the interval between the floating unit’s departure and the commissioning of new production capacities, the more entrenched the negative contribution of the extractive sector to Cameroon’s overall economic growth will become. The current projections indicate that none of the announced initiatives are capable of immediately offsetting the anticipated decline in LNG exports.
