In Mali, the blockade enforced by the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group, has escalated to unprecedented levels. Over the weekend, at least a dozen passenger buses were set ablaze along the Ségou-Bamako corridor, the capital’s primary supply route from the eastern regions. Simultaneously, critical electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region came under targeted assault, resulting in significant damage. While Malian forces continue military operations across multiple fronts, they have yet to break the economic stranglehold tightening around the country.
Manantali: a pivotal target in a war of attrition
The assault on Manantali’s infrastructure is far from incidental. The dam, operated through a trilateral agreement involving Mauritania and Senegal under the Senegal River Development Organization (OMVS), serves as Mali’s backbone for urban electricity supply. By sabotaging its transmission lines, JNIM is no longer merely challenging security forces—it is directly undermining the nation’s economic spine. Power outages cripple public services, paralyze commerce, and halt industrial activity, turning electricity into a weapon of mass disruption.
This campaign follows weeks of systematic targeting of fuel convoys entering Mali from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists are weaponizing fuel shortages, betting on eroding public trust in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Even Bamako, long perceived as insulated from the worst violence, now finds itself at the heart of a grinding battle for survival.
Armed forces respond amid fragile relief
In response, the Malian military reports ongoing ground and aerial operations across several regions. Recent weeks have seen military escorts successfully escorting hundreds of tanker trucks into Bamako, easing—but only temporarily—the siege on fuel stations. Yet this reprieve is fragile. Each convoy demands substantial resources, and the prospect of securing national highways in the long term remains distant.
Mali’s armed forces are caught in a pincer movement. In central and western regions, JNIM escalates ambushes and infrastructure sabotage. To the north, in the Kidal region, tensions remain frozen in a tense stalemate, with further clashes expected against factions aligned with the Permanent Strategic Framework. The transitional government now navigates two distinct fronts, with dwindling human and material reserves.
A regional crisis deepens
The blockade’s ripple effects extend beyond Mali’s borders. Neighboring economies—particularly those of Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—are increasingly alarmed by the disruption of West African trade corridors. Reduced cargo flows are straining ports in Dakar and Abidjan, which historically serve as key transit hubs for Sahelian hinterlands. The Sahel States Confederation, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to mount a unified counter-strategy against the jihadists’ economic warfare.
The attack on Manantali also raises urgent questions about shared infrastructure under the OMVS framework. Any further damage could directly impact electricity supply in Senegal and Mauritania, turning a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. International partners—donors and military suppliers alike—are now forced to balance their commitment to Bamako’s sovereignty with the protection of critical cross-border assets.
On the ground, the gap between the army’s operational claims and the stark reality of a besieged capital underscores the conflict’s evolving nature. JNIM is no longer content with territorial control—it seeks to suffocate the state itself.
