In Mali, the blockade enforced by the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group, has escalated to a new level. Over the past weekend, at least a dozen intercity buses were set ablaze along the critical Ségou-Bamako corridor, a vital supply route for the capital from eastern regions. Simultaneously, electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes region was targeted and destroyed. While the Malian army continues its operations on multiple fronts, it has yet to relieve the economic stranglehold crushing the nation.
Manantali: a strategic target in an economic war of attrition
The attack on Manantali’s power lines is far from incidental. The dam, operated under a multilateral framework with Mauritania and Senegal through the Senegal River Basin Development Organization (OMVS), stands as one of Mali’s primary pillars of electricity. By damaging its evacuation lines, JNIM is no longer merely targeting military and security forces—it is striking at the heart of urban economic life, where power cuts paralyze public services, businesses, and industries almost instantly.
This strategy follows weeks of systematic targeting of fuel convoys entering Mali from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists aim to weaponize hydrocarbon shortages, betting on eroding public support for the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. Bamako, once relatively spared, now finds itself at the epicenter of a grinding battle of endurance.
Army’s countermeasures and fleeting relief
The Malian military leadership reports ongoing ground and air operations across several regions. In recent days, military escorts facilitated the entry of hundreds of fuel tankers into Bamako, temporarily easing the pressure on gas stations under siege. Yet this logistical respite remains fragile: each convoy demands immense resources, and the long-term security of national highways appears increasingly unattainable.
The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) are caught in a pincer movement. In western and central Mali, JNIM has intensified ambushes and infrastructure sabotage. To the north, in the Kidal region, tensions remain frozen in a precarious stalemate, with further clashes anticipated against the Permanent Strategic Framework rebel alliance. Bamako is thus navigating two distinct battlefields with dwindling human and material reserves.
A regional spillover with high stakes
The blockade gripping Mali has spilled beyond its borders. Neighboring economies—particularly those of Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—watch with growing concern as trade corridors across West Africa deteriorate. The slowdown in goods movement is hitting ports like Dakar and Abidjan, where a substantial share of transit routes serve the Sahel hinterland. The Sahel States Confederation, uniting Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to mount a coordinated response to the economic warfare waged by jihadist factions.
The Manantali attack also raises urgent questions about shared facilities under the OMVS. Further damage could directly disrupt electricity supply to Senegal and Mauritania, transforming a Malian crisis into a regional emergency. External partners, including donors and military suppliers, face a delicate balance between backing Bamako’s sovereignty claims and safeguarding critical cross-border infrastructure.
On the ground, the gap between the army’s operational claims and the reality of a capital under siege underscores the unparalleled nature of this conflict phase. JNIM is no longer merely holding territory—it is systematically asphyxiating a state.
