The Africa Corps, Russia’s military unit replacing the Wagner Group in Mali, is recalibrating its strategy by pulling fighters away from the country’s volatile northern regions. Instead, its focus now lies on safeguarding the capital, Bamako, and bolstering the ruling junta with aerial support and intelligence for Malian troops on the ground.
Analysts suggest this shift reflects a deliberate effort to minimize losses and reduce direct exposure of personnel in high-risk zones. Benedict Manzin, a senior Middle East and Africa analyst, notes that the Africa Corps is adopting a more cautious approach, prioritizing efficiency over large-scale engagements.
«They’re doing everything to avoid sending more people to their deaths,» Manzin explains. «Their goal is to limit personnel risks while inflicting maximum damage where possible.»
The transition from Wagner to the Africa Corps occurred in mid-2024, following heavy casualties suffered by Wagner fighters in an ambush near Tin Zaouatine, close to the Algerian border. This incident, carried out by the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), prompted a strategic reevaluation.
The Africa Corps currently deploys around 2,000 personnel, many of whom are former Wagner mercenaries. This represents a significant reduction compared to Wagner’s earlier deployments and is roughly half the size of the French-led Barkhane counterterrorism force, which was expelled from Mali in 2022 under the junta’s orders.
Northern retreat and aerial dominance
The fall of Kidal to a coalition of the MNLA and the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) in late April appears to have been a turning point. In response, the Africa Corps launched retaliatory airstrikes on Kidal, destroying critical infrastructure and forcing civilians to flee. These strikes were conducted to reinforce Malian armed forces (FAMa), which now serve as the primary ground force in the north.
Manzin highlights a growing reliance on air power: «We’re seeing a heavy emphasis on aerial resources, including the use of Russian-made cluster munitions in the Kidal region.» Such tactics contravene Mali’s obligations under the international convention banning cluster munitions.
«They have limited resources to spare,» Manzin adds. «Deploying them in scattered engagements across northern communities would only lead to unnecessary losses.»
Shifting operations to central and southern Mali
Recent social media declarations from the Africa Corps reveal a strategic pivot toward the country’s central and southern regions. Most operations are now concentrated near Bamako, according to Jacob Boswall, a political analyst monitoring the situation.
Following the loss of Kidal, the Africa Corps escalated its propaganda campaign, publishing over 500 posts across Telegram and other platforms in the weeks that followed.
In addition to airstrikes, the group has been actively circumventing economic blockades imposed by JNIM. Russian fighters and air support now escort supply convoys entering Mali from landlocked neighboring countries like Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, and Senegal, shielding them from JNIM attacks.
Meanwhile, JNIM has adapted by deploying drones to target Africa Corps positions. Recent social media footage shows drone strikes on Russian bases in Sévaré, resulting in casualties and damage to aircraft.
In retaliation, the Africa Corps has conducted armed drone strikes on JNIM positions, including a fuel depot in the Tombouctou region, as reported by conflict monitoring organizations.
Fiscal and strategic consequences
Since late 2021, Mali has spent nearly $1 billion to secure the support of Wagner and the Africa Corps. Despite this investment, the government and its Russian allies have lost control of the north, while JNIM’s influence has expanded across the Sahel.
Manzin warns of the strategy’s long-term repercussions: «The approach taken by the Malian state is unsustainable and risks destabilizing the country further. By alienating local communities through brutal tactics, they’ve inadvertently driven more people into the arms of JNIM.»
