Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has affirmed Cameroon’s sovereign credit rating at ‘B-/B’ with a stable outlook, a decision that keeps the country deep in speculative territory while placing the political transition in Yaoundé squarely on the radar of international investors. The rating, made public in mid-September, comes as the long-avoided question of presidential succession becomes a central variable in how markets price Cameroonian risk. For both investors and multilateral partners, the reaffirmation is less an endorsement than a cautionary signal.
Rating reaffirmed, but a warning between the lines
In maintaining the ‘B-/B’ rating, S&P acknowledges the fiscal path Yaoundé has followed under its programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while stressing the economy’s structural fragility. The rating sits five notches below investment grade, reflecting a repayment capacity deemed vulnerable to shocks. The agency’s analysts highlight a public debt burden that continues to weigh on revenues, as well as budget execution disrupted by volatile hydrocarbon prices.
Beneath the apparent stability, S&P underscores political uncertainties that could derail the trajectory. The country is entering a sensitive electoral sequence, with the presidential poll set to determine whether the regime in place for more than four decades will continue. This context weighs on the risk premium demanded by markets, in a regional environment already marked by Sahel turbulence and tighter financing conditions for African issuers.
Presidential succession: a new risk premium
It is the question of transition at the top of the state that crystallises attention. The US agency believes the outcome of the vote and, more broadly, the management of the post-Biya era will condition the country’s macroeconomic stability in the coming years. A controlled institutional handover would help preserve relations with donors, starting with the IMF, whose programme anchors structural reforms. Conversely, any political blockage, post-election dispute, or poorly prepared vacancy would expose Yaoundé to a sudden capital flight and a downgrade of its creditworthiness.
Cameroon, the largest economy in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), serves as a regional anchor. Its signature directly influences the financing conditions of other issuers in the franc zone, from Gabon to the Republic of Congo. A sovereign downgrade for Cameroon would therefore have immediate contagion effects on the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) and on common foreign exchange reserves, already strained by member countries’ external refinancing needs.
Budget reforms and lingering vulnerabilities
On the macroeconomic front, S&P notes efforts to streamline fuel subsidies, broaden the tax base, and contain the wage bill. These measures, required under the letter of intent signed with the IMF, have helped stabilise the budget deficit at levels considered sustainable. However, non-oil revenue mobilisation remains weak, around 12 to 13 percent of gross domestic product, well below the standards of comparable economies.
Dependence on hydrocarbons also continues to undermine external balances. Cameroonian oil production is structurally declining, eroding export revenues at a time when import needs, particularly for food and energy, remain high. External debt service, estimated at several hundred billion CFA francs per year, absorbs a growing share of public resources, limiting fiscal space for long-term investment.
Technical and financial partners are also monitoring the effective implementation of IMF recommendations on the governance of state-owned enterprises, particularly in the hydrocarbons and electricity sectors. The National Hydrocarbons Corporation (SNH) and Camair-Co are among the entities whose restructuring is key to the credibility of the fiscal path announced through 2027.
A signal to investors and donors
For asset managers exposed to African debt, S&P’s message is twofold. The stable rating opens the door to new eurobond issues or private placements, if market conditions allow. But the explicit mention of political risk calls for caution, just weeks before an event that will redraw the political geography of the sub-region. Western diplomats and Gulf capitals, now very active in financing African infrastructure, are watching with equal attention.
The agency has explicitly linked the stability of its outlook to the authorities’ ability to ensure an orderly transition, a prerequisite for maintaining access to international capital markets.
Further reading
Ecobank Cameroon posts 22.5 billion CFA francs profit by end-August · BCEAO denies fake video targeting governor Jean-Claude Brou · BEAC pushes to revive IMF programmes in CEMAC
