The Gabonese public debt has reached $15 billion in 2025, a record high for the CEMAC economy. This level, revealed after a marked exercise with tensions of trésorerie and increased recourse to regional markets, confirms the upward trajectory begun several years ago. It places Libreville face with an increasingly tight budgetary arbitrage, within a context where oil revenues remain the key variable in balancing public finances.
A Debt Trajectory That Raises Questions About Sustainability
When compared to national wealth, the burden is now nearing the threshold of 70% of Gross Domestic Product set by the Community Economic and Monetary Union of Central Africa (CEMAC). The Gabon, fifth-largest economy in the sub-region, had built its reputation on prudent management of macroeconomic ratios in the early 2000s. However, the situation has reversed under the cumulative effect of the 2014 oil price slump, the health crisis, followed by the inflation of domestic debt lodged in local banks and public market titles of the Central Bank of the Economic Community of Central African States (BEAC).
The current stock combines a predominantly external component, mainly backed by eurobonds issued between 2013 and 2020, and an increasing domestic debt whose weight continues to grow. Regular issuances of government bonds and obligations on regional markets have enabled the country to cover its financial needs, but at the cost of higher interest rates that weigh on the budget’s operation. In concrete terms, each new borrowing round increases the average cost of the portfolio.
The Delicate Balancing Act of Oligui Nguema’s Transition
Since his arrival to power in August 2023, General Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema has made restoring balance budgets a flagship economic program. The Committee for Transition and Institutional Restoration (CTRI) has announced several audits on public debt, particularly on internal payments accumulated by state suppliers and local authorities. The goal is to identify disputed claims and re-classify those deemed legitimate, in order to free up funds for investment.
The exercise remains however constrained by the agenda of debt repayment. The country must honor several eurobond payment deadlines within the coming years, including a dollar-denominated title that matures and whose refinancing poses already a major challenge. Libreville has tested international markets with a 2024 operation to manage its passif partly backed by a conversion mechanism for debt-nature, without however resolving the underlying equation. The regained credibility of investors requires clarity on budget laws and formal dialogue resumption with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Oil, Manganese, and Wood: Export Revenue Levers
The Gabon’s ability to absorb this burden depends largely on its export sectors’ performance. Oil remains the backbone of government revenues, with production fluctuating around 200,000 barrels per day, in a structural decline. The manganese, with Libreville being a world-class producer through the Ogooué Mining Company (Comilog), a subsidiary of French group Eramet, contributes increasingly, driven by Asian demand. The wood-processing industry, backed by the Nkok Special Economic Zone, completes the trio.
Authorities are also relying on accelerating infrastructure projects such as roads and energy to support non-oil growth. The Transgabon project, a flagship, and several partnerships in hydroelectricity must propel activity beyond 3% per annum, a condition necessary for stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio. Without this surge, Gabon risks seeing its sovereign rating decline further, after several successive downward assessments from international agencies.
The budgetary roadmap presented for 2026 will therefore need to balance discipline in expenditure, mobilization of non-tax revenue and targeted renegotiation of the debt stock. An equilibrium demanding but crucial for the country’s credibility on regional and international markets. According to Financial Afrik, the level reached in 2025 constitutes a key point of vigilance for Gabon’s economic trajectory.
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