The robust start to Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa export season, with nearly one million tonnes already contracted for the 2026-27 harvest, faces potential disruption from the looming El Niño weather phenomenon expected in July, industry insiders warn. In response to stock regulation needs, the Conseil du Café et du Cacao (CCC) in Abidjan has raised its premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the futures price, according to sector sources familiar with the matter.
Market momentum meets caution
A surge in global demand has driven Ivorian cocoa sales to between 950,000 and one million tonnes ahead of the September 1 launch of the new season. Yet traders are exercising restraint, prioritizing caution over rapid expansion. « We’ve already secured nearly a million tonnes in contracts, but we’ve deliberately slowed the pace to avoid overextending, » noted a CCC representative.
Cocoa trading firms anticipate export volumes of 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes, citing the elevated premium as a market-driven advantage. « The current market conditions allow the CCC to adopt a firmer stance. They don’t need to lower premiums to secure deals, » explained a senior executive at a major trading house.
El Niño’s shadow over production
Despite the strong momentum, the arrival of El Niño threatens to disrupt the outlook. The weather anomaly could trigger severe drought in key cocoa-producing nations, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria, jeopardizing harvests and export stability.
Underlying structural challenges
Export operators highlight deeper concerns than weather risks. Aging plantations and widespread plant diseases plague many Ivorian cocoa farms, while soaring fertilizer and pesticide costs compound the crisis. « I don’t see El Niño as the biggest threat. The real bottleneck is the scarcity of fertilizers and crop protection products, » emphasized the director of an Abidjan-based export firm.
