Western Sahara conflict: how Morocco’s military edge is reshaping the Polisario’s strategy
The death of a high-ranking Polisario leader in a Moroccan drone strike has laid bare the group’s military vulnerability and diplomatic isolation. Despite claiming to remain open to dialogue, the movement is struggling to adapt to Morocco’s technological superiority on the ground.
Military asymmetry reshapes the conflict
The killing of Lahbib Mohamed Abdelaziz, a key figure in the Sahrawi People’s Liberation Army and son of a former Polisario president, during a precision strike has exposed the depth of Morocco’s military advantage. Alongside the dozens of casualties from drone attacks in recent years, this incident underscores how outdated equipment — often modified Spanish Land Rovers — cannot compete with modern surveillance and strike capabilities.
A strategy of persistence amid overwhelming odds
Despite these setbacks, the Polisario maintains a dual approach, balancing continued calls for dialogue with the realities of battlefield losses. Abdoullah Arabi, the group’s representative in Spain, insists that the movement is “accustomed to engaging in dialogue under all circumstances,” even as Morocco consolidates its diplomatic gains. In April, Brahim Ghali, the Polisario’s leader, signaled a willingness to act as a peaceful partner for neighboring countries, including Morocco, while insisting on the implementation of UN resolutions.
International isolation and shifting alliances
The Polisario’s diplomatic struggles have intensified as Morocco gains support from major Western powers. The United States and France have aligned behind Morocco’s position, while even Spain, once a vocal supporter of Sahrawi rights, recognized Morocco’s autonomy plan in 2022 as the most credible solution. This shift has drawn sharp criticism from Polisario representatives, who accuse Madrid of applying double standards when Sahrawi lives are at stake.
Geographical constraints compound the challenge
The Moroccan military’s control over key regions has been further solidified by a fortified sand wall built in the 1980s. This massive barrier divides the territory, cutting through 250,000 square kilometers and restricting the Polisario to just 20% of the landlocked interior. Despite the resilience highlighted by activists like Aminatou Haidar, the movement’s traditional strengths in desert navigation are no longer sufficient against Morocco’s advanced military infrastructure.
