The anticipated political divergence between President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko has indeed materialized in Senegal. Following his dismissal by Faye, Sonko has strategically repositioned himself within the National Assembly.
Had Ousmane Sonko possessed foresight, the National Assembly would have been his ideal political refuge from the outset, a place to patiently await the 2029 elections. This strategy was particularly compelling after his party, Pastef, secured a resounding victory in the November 2024 legislative elections.
Sonko likely believed that closely shadowing President Diomaye Faye and directly wielding executive power alongside him was the surest way to prevent Faye from growing too fond of the presidential office. Initially, Faye seemed content to play a more ceremonial role, akin to a constitutional monarch. However, as Machiavelli wisely observed, power transforms, and those who elevate others to kingship often seal their own downfall.
The inevitable unraveling
In Senegal’s presidential system, there is ultimately no room for any figure to truly rival the Head of State. Even an exceptionally influential Prime Minister remains merely a first among equals, nothing more.
Sonko soon found his position within the government increasingly restrictive. A pivotal moment arrived on July 1, 2025, when the Supreme Court declined to overturn the ruling that rendered him ineligible for the 2029 elections. This decision significantly clouded Sonko’s political prospects. Compounding his frustration, he perceived a lack of concern from President Diomaye Faye regarding his predicament. Consequently, the seasoned political strategist within Sonko, never truly dormant, reasserted itself. With traditional institutional avenues gradually closing, he opted for a more populist approach to regain influence, sometimes pushing the boundaries, as evidenced by the controversial circumstances surrounding his assumption of leadership in the National Assembly. This move, backed by the numerical strength of his supporters, now serves as his stronghold, seemingly without fear of legal challenge for an alleged abuse of power, a claim made by Senegal’s diminished opposition. Only President Diomaye Faye holds the authority to refer the legality of Sonko’s control of the National Assembly to the Constitutional Council, a step he has, for now, chosen not to take.
Diomaye Faye’s calculated inaction
In Senegal, the land of historical figures like Lat Dior Diop, the revered king of Cayor and a prominent 19th-century hero of anti-colonial resistance, political affairs are rarely straightforward. Merely consulting constitutional articles and subsequent laws offers little insight into the current intricate power play. To echo Senegal’s national motto, there are two key players and one ultimate objective. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, known for his shrewdness, and Ousmane Sonko, often described as a « Djambar » or a force of nature, are these central figures. Their shared ultimate goal: the 2029 presidential election.
These two political titans wield distinct advantages. President Bassirou Diomaye Faye commands the state institutions and the legal framework. Ousmane Sonko, on the other hand, possesses the unwavering loyalty of his well-mobilized party faithful and a willingness to challenge established norms without hesitation.
Strategic deployment of power: how each leader navigates the landscape
Ousmane Sonko undeniably holds a powerful position within the National Assembly. However, his leverage is tempered by several vulnerabilities: the potential for a hostile takeover (OPA, referring to a political maneuver), the looming threat of parliamentary dissolution, and crucially, the specter of a « forfaiture » (abuse of power) charge should the Constitutional Council, if consulted, deem his re-entry as a deputy illegal.
Meanwhile, President Diomaye Faye appears to be exercising patience. Now unburdened by the immediate presence of Sonko in the executive, he is focused, alongside his new Prime Minister Ahmadou Al Aminou Lô, on stabilizing economic affairs and engaging with international financial institutions. Faye clearly understands that a direct confrontation is inevitable, and he is reportedly preparing for it with a strong inner circle.
