On the surface, the nations spanning the Sahelian belt – a geographical expanse stretching from Mali to Chad – hardly project the image of a burgeoning economic frontier. To put it plainly, this is no Singapore for foreign direct investment. The core economic indicators for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger present a challenging picture. In Mali, for instance, 47% of its 25.9 million inhabitants are under 15 years old, only 25% of the land is arable, and the country ranks 188th out of 193 in the UN Development Programme’s Human Development Index. Nearly 45% of its population lives below the poverty line. Ouagadougou and Niamey exhibit comparable statistics, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations, respectively, living in poverty according to the World Bank. All three are landlocked states, currently governed by military juntas that have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with the tacit support of the Kremlin, aiming to dismantle remaining French strongholds. Their anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic stances were initially presented as a path to prosperity for their citizens, a prosperity allegedly withheld by Europeans; however, this has not materialized. Nevertheless, two neighboring countries, Algeria and Morocco, are now actively offering their services and strategic visions.
Morocco: an atlantic gateway
Through the development of the Dakhla Atlantic Port, the Kingdom of Morocco is proposing an infrastructure project in the Western Sahara that mirrors the strategic importance of Tanger Med as a hub connecting with Europe. Construction is anticipated to conclude by 2028, with operations commencing the following year. The underlying philosophy of this major facility is to serve as a pivotal entry point for West Africa and a direct route to the Americas. Rabat has already hosted the three leaders of the AES. From a geopolitical standpoint, this is a sharp proposition: a port from which a railway line (though not yet finalized) would extend, providing these three landlocked nations with crucial access to the ocean, thereby alleviating their isolation. The primary objective is to stimulate their economies. For Morocco, which faces geographical isolation due to its ongoing dispute with Algeria, this initiative simultaneously demonstrates that its Western Sahara development plan will benefit the entire sub-region. Furthermore, it aims to indirectly counter jihadist groups destabilizing the Sahel by offering economic opportunities and hope to a disillusioned youth population, especially given the region’s rapidly increasing birth rate, which is projected to double its population within a decade.
Algeria: a trans-saharan gas pipeline to europe
Algeria, which had previously experienced strained relations with Niger, re-established cordial ties in mid-February with Abderrahmane Tiani, the head of Niger’s military government in Niamey. Algeria proposed initiating the construction of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline’s segment “immediately after Ramadan.” This vital energy project will originate in Nigeria, traverse Niger, and ultimately reach Algeria. Spanning 4800 kilometers, its purpose is to deliver natural gas to European markets. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbon company, is poised to manage the pipeline’s construction on Nigerien soil and will also be responsible for training Nigerien personnel in its operation. This commitment to local capacity building represents a significant advantage over other foreign investors, such as China, which often does not prioritize training locals in the management of their national resources.
Two complementary strategies in opposition
Discussions regarding Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara have commenced in Madrid and Washington (February 23rd and 24th). Should this conflict, now in its fifth decade, finally be resolved, Algeria and Morocco could potentially address the Sahel’s volatile security and demographic challenges in a unified manner. Such cooperation would prevent the AES states from exploiting the existing rivalries between the two regional capitals.
Jihadism thrives amidst the combined scourges of pervasive poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algeria and Morocco, independently, seek to disrupt this destructive cycle. Each nation leverages its unique strengths: Algeria offers its hydrocarbon resources and Sonatrach’s extensive expertise, while Rabat promotes its strategy of large-scale infrastructure projects and its ambition to serve as a pivotal hub connecting three continents—Africa, America, and Europe. These two strategies, while inherently complementary, are unfortunately pitted against each other due to the unresolved Sahrawi conflict. This is a missed opportunity for enhanced regional stability.
*On September 26, 2025, Mali’s Prime Minister, Abdoulaye Maïga, publicly demanded that Algeria “cease supporting international terrorism.” In response, Ahmed Attaf, Algeria’s Foreign Minister, denounced this as a “soldier’s logorrhea.”
