Cameroon is currently preparing one of its most significant external financing operations since its January 2026 Eurobond. According to the Caisse Autonome d’Amortissement (CAA)’s monthly public debt report for June 2026, the state aims to raise $690 million, approximately 400 billion FCFA, through an ESG-focused bond targeting international investors. This crucial operation, however, unfolds amid a political climate that could shape market perceptions, notably the prolonged absence of President Paul Biya—a factor traditionally integrated by global investors into their sovereign risk assessments.
The head of state has not been seen publicly since June 7, 2026, when authorities announced his departure for a “brief private stay” in Switzerland. An investigation published on July 30 noted this absence as the longest observed since his ascent to power in 1982. This situation has intensified speculation within Cameroon regarding President Biya’s health and whereabouts.
Authorities have consistently refuted these rumors. The Minister of Communication, René Emmanuel Sadi, affirmed that “the President is in good health and working from Geneva, where he currently resides. Information claiming otherwise is pure fantasy and malicious manipulation aimed at destabilizing public opinion.”
Despite these official statements, questions persist. Several opposition figures have publicly demanded greater transparency regarding the President’s situation, citing a potential institutional void. For international investors, these internal debates primarily fuel the assessment of political risk, a criterion evaluated alongside macroeconomic fundamentals and budgetary indicators.
Rating agencies highlight long-standing political risk
Analyses from credit rating agencies reveal that this concern is not a recent development. In its November 15, 2024, report, Fitch Ratings stated that “political instability will be a major factor influencing Cameroon’s sovereign rating. President Paul Biya’s age, his longevity in power since 1982, and the absence of a succession plan exacerbate the risk of a disorderly power transition.” The agency maintained its B rating with a negative outlook at that time.
On May 9, 2025, Fitch reaffirmed this rating, citing “growing political tensions ahead of elections,” persistent fragility in fiscal governance, and ongoing shortcomings in public finance management. Moody’s presented a similar analysis in February 2024, concluding that “political destabilization risks linked to the absence of a credible presidential succession plan” justified maintaining its Caa rating, while cautioning that “a chaotic transition could lead to delays in debt payments.”
Standard & Poor’s also underscored this vulnerability in its March 21, 2025, analysis. The agency highlighted that “Cameroon has been led since 1982 by President Paul Biya, who, at 92, is expected to seek an eighth term in the October 2025 presidential election,” adding that the concentration of power and the lack of a precedent for presidential transition contribute to a high level of uncertainty.
Nevertheless, the constitutional reform of April 2026 prompted Fitch to partially revise its assessment. In its latest evaluation, the agency believes that “the risk of a disorderly power transition in Cameroon has decreased, without disappearing entirely, following the April 2026 constitutional reform that created the position of vice-president. However, it is not yet known who will occupy this role, and risks persist given a fragmented sociopolitical environment.”
Markets have already demonstrated their sensitivity to such signals. In early October 2024, rumors of Paul Biya’s death triggered a decline in Cameroon’s dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Reports indicated that these securities had experienced a third consecutive session of losses “due to uncertainty regarding President Biya’s health.”
Analysts weighed in, with one investment manager noting that “President Biya has concentrated a great deal of power around him, and a succession crisis could cause significant market volatility.” Another strategist for Africa estimated that “political uncertainty could challenge the country’s ability to maintain its fiscal policy and honor its commitments to its international creditors.”
Strengths to reassure investors
The political context, however, represents only one of many criteria considered by international investors. Growth prospects, the public debt trajectory, the quality of sovereign creditworthiness, and credit enhancement mechanisms designed to secure the operation also play a decisive role in their assessment.
To enhance the risk profile of this issuance and boost its attractiveness, Cameroon is leveraging several international partners. The operation is structured with the support of Matha Capital as financial advisor, the African Development Bank (AfDB), the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATIDI)—a multilateral institution specializing in covering trade and investment risks—and the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), a pan-African financial institution focused on infrastructure financing. The involvement of these partners aims to reinforce the issuance’s credibility among investors, particularly those specializing in sustainable finance.
Robust economic fundamentals also present favorable arguments. In its latest rating, Fitch projects average growth of 3.7% in 2026 and 2027, anticipates a reduction in the public debt ratio to 40.2% of GDP by 2027, and highlights Cameroon’s successful mobilization of $750 million on international markets in January 2026 through a widely subscribed Eurobond.
The agency cautions, however, that investors will continue to evaluate several factors, including developments in governance, public finance management, arrears clearance, the conclusion of a new program with the International Monetary Fund, and the political context. With this new international issuance just months away, Paul Biya’s prolonged absence thus constitutes an additional element likely to influence Cameroon’s sovereign risk perception. While not, by itself, undermining the country’s capacity to raise funds on international markets, it could impact the conditions under which investors agree to finance this operation.
