While Paris Saint-Germain, having clinched their fourteenth French championship title mid-week, prepares for a derby clash against Paris FC at Jean-Bouin, the Ligue 1 final day on Sunday, May 17, promises a multitude of twists and turns. Significant uncertainties persist regarding both European qualification and the crucial relegation playoff position. Let’s explore the key scenarios unfolding across the league.

Lille holds its destiny

Behind champions Paris Saint-Germain and second-placed RC Lens, three clubs are fiercely competing for the third and final automatic qualification spot for the Champions League: Lille (3rd, 61 points), Lyon (4th, 60 points), and Rennes (5th, 59 points).

Undefeated since February 1st, a remarkable run of thirteen matches without a loss, Lille’s squad is uniquely positioned to secure this coveted third place. If LOSC triumphs over relegation playoff contender Auxerre, their position will be unassailable. The northern club is already guaranteed at least a fifth-place finish in Ligue 1, which secures a spot in the Europa League. Meanwhile, Lyon’s players are hoping for a Lille slip-up as they host Lens. Should Lyon emerge victorious against the Sang et Or, who may have their focus divided by their upcoming Coupe de France final against Nice next week, they could at least clinch a Champions League preliminary round berth.

Marseille-Rennes: a high-stakes encounter

The pivotal clash at the Vélodrome between Olympique Marseille and Rennes carries immense consequences for the defeated side. If Stade Rennais avoids a loss, they are guaranteed Europa League football, with a victory potentially securing an even better European position. However, a defeat could relegate them to the less prestigious – and less lucrative – Europa Conference League. Franck Haise’s Rennes side has recently suffered two setbacks against European rivals (Lille, 2-1, and Lyon, 4-2). Marseille coach Habib Beye, returning to the club that dismissed him in February, faces even greater pressure.

Following a season marked by both sporting and off-field drama, the Marseillais, who secured an unconvincing win against Le Havre after a heavy defeat in Nantes, are desperate to improve on their current 6th place. Yet, a loss could cost Marseille everything: Monaco, sitting seventh just two points behind OM, could leapfrog the Olympiens and push them out of European contention if they defeat Strasbourg.

The relegation playoff: Le Havre, Auxerre, or Nice?

While Metz and Nantes have already been relegated to Ligue 2 for the upcoming season, three clubs remain locked in a desperate struggle to avoid the relegation playoff spot: Le Havre (14th, 32 points), Auxerre (15th, 31 points), and Nice (16th, 31 points).

Despite an early goal from Sofiane Diop (2-1), Auxerre notably overcame Nice last week, earning themselves a temporary reprieve. However, the AJA now faces the daunting task of traveling to Lille. Paradoxically, current playoff occupant Nice appears well-positioned for survival. The Niçois footballers host Metz, the league’s bottom team, who haven’t secured a victory since November. Le Havre travels to face Lorient (9th), a consistently strong club. The Normans could find themselves in the playoff spot if their two direct competitors for survival secure wins, a culmination of Le Havre’s prolonged slump, as they haven’t won a match since early February against Strasbourg.