Morocco’s High Commission for Planning has unveiled its latest demographic projections for the kingdom, spanning 2024 to 2060. The forecasts—grounded in varying scenarios of birth rates, mortality, and migration—paint a picture of significant transformation over the coming decades.
a steady population growth with urban dominance
Under the central, or tendential, scenario, Morocco’s population is expected to rise from 36.8 million in 2024 to 43.3 million by 2060. This represents an overall increase of 17.8% over 36 years, translating to an average annual addition of 182,000 inhabitants. Crucially, the population growth rate is projected to decelerate from 0.7% in 2024 to nearly zero by 2060, signaling a period of demographic quasi-stagnation after decades of expansion.
Urban areas are set to account for the bulk of this growth. By 2060, urban populations are forecast to reach 32.5 million—nearly three-quarters of the total population—while rural numbers are expected to decline to approximately 10.8 million. This shift underscores the pressing need for urban planning reforms, particularly in housing, infrastructure, and social services, to mitigate territorial imbalances and prevent overcrowding in cities.
declining youth populations: implications for education and workforce
The anticipated drop in fertility will have a pronounced impact on younger age groups. The number of preschool-aged children (4-5 years) is projected to fall by 23.8%, from 1.25 million to 960,000. Primary school-aged children (6-11 years) will see a 27% decrease, from 4.16 million to 3.04 million. Similarly, the 12-14 age group is expected to shrink by 22.9%, and those aged 15-17 by 11.4%.
This demographic contraction presents an opportunity to reallocate resources within the education system. With fewer new classrooms needed, funds can be redirected toward improving teaching quality, curricula, and student support, transforming challenges into a chance to elevate Morocco’s educational standards.
labor force dynamics: urban growth and rural decline
The working-age population (15-59 years) is projected to grow from 22.08 million to 24.96 million by 2060, an increase of 13.1%. However, this growth is unevenly distributed. In urban areas, the working-age population is expected to surge by 34.4%, from 14.2 million to 19.1 million. Conversely, rural areas will experience a 25.4% decline, shrinking from 7.9 million to 5.9 million.
This urban-driven expansion will intensify pressure on labor markets, particularly in cities absorbing migrants from rural regions. Meanwhile, the 18-24 age group—a key source of new entrants to the workforce—will see a slight national decline of 3.1%, though urban areas will experience an 11.3% increase, offsetting rural losses of 28.3%.
The 50-59 age bracket will rise sharply by 44.9% nationally, driven by a 76.6% increase in urban areas and a 17.4% drop in rural zones. This demographic window—where the working-age population grows faster than dependents—offers Morocco a critical period to harness its labor force before aging accelerates.
aging population: a demographic challenge on the horizon
By 2060, the number of Moroccans aged 60 and over will more than double, rising from 5 million to 10.9 million. This age group will represent 25.2% of the total population, up from 13.6% in 2024. The 70+ segment will triple, reaching 6.3 million, with urban areas seeing a 256% increase (from 1.25 million to 4.44 million) compared to a more modest 130% rise in rural zones.
Two factors drive this trend: internal migration, which concentrates older adults in cities, and higher rural mortality rates, which limit aging in rural areas. The aging surge is tied to the fertility decline that began in 1975, alongside significant mortality reductions and, to a lesser extent, migration patterns. Generations born after 1975 will reach retirement age starting in 2035, accelerating the demographic shift.
public policy priorities for a changing Morocco
The High Commission for Planning warns that accelerated aging will heighten the dependency ratio, increasing the burden on the working-age population to support both youth and elderly dependents. This shift demands urgent policy adaptations in pension systems, healthcare, and intergenerational support structures, especially as urbanization weakens traditional family bonds.
While the institution acknowledges that aging is an inevitable, long-term trend across all scenarios, it stresses that proactive measures in education, employment, urban planning, and social protection are essential to ensure Morocco’s demographic transition is managed equitably and sustainably.
