The vast Sambisa Forest, spanning an immense 60,000 square kilometers across Northeast Nigeria, once thrived as a vibrant natural reserve, a popular destination for tourists. Today, however, most of its wildlife has vanished, replaced by two warring militant factions and the soldiers relentlessly pursuing them.
Since 2016, when Boko Haram fractured into two distinct entities, the Jama’at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da’wah wa’l-Jihad (JAS) and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), these groups have been locked in a fierce struggle for dominance over the forest. Recent observations indicate a significant escalation in their internal conflict.
Sambisa’s immense size and dense, protective canopy make it an exceptionally strategic location. It offers ideal hideouts, perfect launchpads for attacks, and crucial control over vital trafficking routes.
Malik Samuel, a senior researcher at Good Governance Africa, noted that for JAS, this conflict initially began as a fight for survival. Despite their intense rivalry, both factions have shown remarkable resilience, maintaining their capacity to wage war against state forces, including the Nigerian army and the Multinational Joint Task Force.
Security analyst Zagazola Makama, based in Borno, has documented numerous battles occurring within and around the Sambisa Forest. Both warring parties frequently claim to have inflicted severe casualties on the other.
While these claims often lack independent verification, they powerfully underscore the intense rivalry between the two groups. This internal struggle has evolved into a parallel conflict, running alongside their broader insurgency against government forces.
Since Boko Haram initiated its insurgency in 2009, the conflict has tragically spilled over into neighboring countries like Cameroon, Niger, and Chad. This regional destabilization has resulted in the deaths of over 40,000 civilians and the displacement of more than 2 million people.
JAS is widely recognized for its tactics involving kidnappings, widespread looting, and deadly assaults. In contrast, ISWAP primarily focuses on seizing and controlling territory, levying taxes, and attempting to establish an alternative local governance structure, despite demonstrating a brutal disregard for human life. Both the Sambisa Forest and the islands of Lake Chad have long served as critical strategic strongholds for these two factions.
- Makama’s analysis suggests that despite sustained counter-terrorism pressure, these insurgent groups continue to maintain active communication networks and operational capabilities within these critical enclaves. The ongoing clashes between Boko Haram (JAS) and ISWAP are increasingly viewed as both a significant challenge and a potential opportunity: a challenge due to the unpredictable dynamics they introduce, and an opportunity because they could ultimately weaken the overall cohesion of insurgent forces across the West Africa insider news landscape.
According to Taiwo Adebayo, a Boko Haram expert at the Institute for Security Studies Africa, the Nigerian and multinational forces’ intense focus on countering ISWAP’s campaign against military installations inadvertently provided JAS with the necessary space and time to regroup and consolidate its strength.
In an analysis, Adebayo emphasized that security strategies must be rebalanced. He argued for treating JAS as an independent and adaptive threat, rather than merely a weakened rival of ISWAP.
Malik Samuel anticipates a prolonged stalemate between these two rival militant groups.
He explained that ISWAP faces significant difficulties in accessing JAS’s stronghold in Barwa, where its leadership is based. This geographical barrier complicates any large-scale operation, similar to past Sambisa campaigns, aimed at eliminating the JAS leadership. Secondly, the close proximity of the two groups within the Lake Chad islands makes confrontation inevitable as they fiercely compete for territory and vital resources.
However, outside of these islands, JAS is generally outmatched by ISWAP, which boasts superior numbers, greater territorial reach, broader operational coverage, more extensive experience, and the presence of foreign terrorist fighters. This nuanced Sahel analysis English highlights the complex dynamics at play.
