Recent events in Senegal have escalated dramatically following President Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s dismissal of Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko on May 22. This move, a culmination of escalating political tensions and increasingly public disagreements between the two leading figures of the executive branch in the “Land of Teranga,” had become almost unavoidable.
Immediately after, Malick Ndiaye, the President of the National Assembly, tendered his resignation from the parliamentary leadership. He clarified his intention to remain a member of the legislative body. This sequence of events appears to be a calculated move to pave the way for the former Prime Minister, Sonko, who has expressed his desire to reclaim his parliamentary seat.
A deepening rift in Senegal’s leadership
The Parliament is scheduled to convene an extraordinary session on May 26 to address this matter and elect its new president. All indications suggest that, barring an unforeseen major upset, Ousmane Sonko, the former mayor of Ziguinchor, who was previously removed from the premiership, is poised to assume the leadership of the legislative body. This new role would enable him to continue his political sparring with President Bassirou Diomaye Faye.
The critical question now looming over Senegal’s political landscape is the extent of this confrontation between the two former allies. This query gains even more weight considering that beyond the former National Assembly President’s resignation – which appears to be a gesture of loyalty towards Sonko – the former Prime Minister is expected to face little difficulty, should he choose to, in being elected as Speaker. This is due to the Pastef (Patriotes africains du Sénégal pour le travail, l’éthique et la fraternité) party’s overwhelming majority in the National Assembly, holding 130 of the 165 parliamentary seats. Sonko remains the prominent figurehead of this ruling party.
The significance of Tuesday’s session cannot be overstated, as it provides a crucial avenue for the former Prime Minister to maintain his presence in the political arena and within the highest echelons of state decision-making by assuming leadership of the Parliament. This is a highly strategic position, especially in light of the apparent finality of the split between the Thiès-born Sonko and President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who is clearly driven by a desire to emerge from the shadow of his former mentor and establish his own authority.
Ousmane Sonko’s potential for legislative obstruction
Nevertheless, this clash of ambitions between former comrades who have ascended to the highest levels of state power leaves Senegal vulnerable to an institutional crisis. This risk is particularly pronounced if, as the current trajectory suggests, Ousmane Sonko is elected President of the National Assembly following the May 26 session. Such an outcome would elevate him to the second most powerful position in the state, making him the constitutional successor to the President.
From this influential vantage point, Sonko could, at any moment, leverage his control over the legislative branch to impede government actions. The ultimate extent of the rivalry between these two leaders of the ruling party remains unpredictable. Indeed, if not carefully managed, this situation threatens to severely undermine the party’s internal cohesion. With two key figures in open conflict, questions arise as to whether Pastef is inadvertently sabotaging its own future.
It is evident that since their rise to power, Ousmane Sonko has harbored a clear ambition to effectively govern in place of Bassirou Diomaye Faye. Sonko, after all, propelled Faye into the presidency under circumstances well-known – his own ineligibility due to a May 2023 appeal conviction prevented him from running in the 2024 presidential election – seemingly with the intention of ruling through him.
Furthermore, his decision to engage in open conflict with the head of state today suggests he has no intention of remaining in Faye’s shadow. It also strongly indicates his belief in possessing sufficient political leverage to advance his presidential aspirations, overcoming the judicial hurdles encountered in 2024.
A standoff: “i hold you, you hold me”
This situation is further influenced by the new Electoral Code, which was swiftly adopted on May 12. While this revision aims to clarify eligibility criteria and prevent the disqualification of candidates for political reasons, opposition factions have interpreted it as a strategic move to enable both Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye to run in future elections.
While Sonko, a staunch opponent of former President Macky Sall, undeniably maintains significant popularity within the party he founded, his eligibility for the next presidential election, anticipated in March 2029, will likely remain contentious until the Constitutional Council issues a definitive ruling on the matter.
Should this rivalry between the two prominent figures at the helm of the state intensify, it risks devolving into a perilous “I hold you, you hold me” standoff, which bodes ill for Senegal’s stability. Furthermore, it could severely disadvantage Pastef, potentially allowing a third party to gain an advantage in upcoming elections, especially if the Senegalese electorate decides to issue a protest vote, a phenomenon they are well-known for.
As events unfold, there is a widespread hope that reason will ultimately prevail for the greater good of the nation, ensuring that Senegal does not become a casualty of the escalating rivalries between two political leaders who initially promised a transformative approach to governance.
