The administration of former President Donald Trump is weighing the possibility of expanding its military operations to include Mali, where a powerful Al-Qaïda-affiliated group operates. According to recent deliberations, Washington is considering targeted strikes against the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), a militant organization with deep roots in the Sahel region. This move would mark the first US intervention in Mali, coming nearly a decade after France’s withdrawal following years of counterterrorism efforts.
While no official announcement has been made, internal discussions have intensified. Key figures within the administration, including Sebastian Gorka, a national security advisor focused on counterterrorism, have advocated for military action. Others, however, remain skeptical about the potential effectiveness of such strikes. If approved, these operations would make Mali the eighth country targeted by US strikes since Trump’s second term began.
The White House has neither confirmed nor denied the possibility of strikes, but a senior official indicated that Washington is urging North and West African nations to bolster their own counterterrorism capabilities. These efforts would involve purchasing advanced American military equipment and services. The official described the growing jihadist threat in the Sahel as a « multinational challenge » requiring coordinated regional responses.
The JNIM has emerged as one of the most formidable armed groups in West Africa, operating primarily from Mali but with expanding influence across coastal nations. Analysts warn that recent security deterioration in the Sahel has further strengthened the group’s reach and operational capacity.
Potential risks: escalation, unintended consequences, and regional rivalries
Security experts have raised concerns about the potential fallout from US military intervention in Mali. Some argue that eliminating JNIM leaders without a broader strategy could radicalize supporters and hinder deradicalization efforts. Corinne Dufka, a Sahel specialist, cautioned that such actions might squander an opportunity to dismantle one of the world’s most sophisticated jihadist organizations through alternative means.
Critics also point to the limited success of past military campaigns in the region. France’s decade-long intervention and Russia’s subsequent five-year presence failed to curb the spread of jihadist groups, raising doubts about the viability of another foreign military approach.
Another concern is the potential unintended strengthening of rival factions, particularly the Islamic State in the Sahel (ISIS-S), which competes with JNIM for influence. Some fear that a US strike campaign could inadvertently create a power vacuum, allowing ISIS-S to expand its operations.
Geopolitical tensions add another layer of complexity. Russia has been actively promoting its military services across Africa, including in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, and the Central African Republic. However, US officials have questioned the efficacy of these engagements. « African nations should take note of Russia’s mixed record in combating terrorism, » remarked one American policymaker, highlighting concerns over Moscow’s long-term impact on regional stability.
