At 93 years old, President Paul Biya, the world’s longest-serving head of state and leader of Cameroon since 1982, has been conspicuously absent from the nation for 48 days as of this Saturday. He departed on June 7, embarking on what an official communiqué described as a “brief private sojourn in Europe,” accompanied by First Lady Chantal Biya.
President Biya, known for his frequent stays in Geneva, has been the subject of persistent health rumors, which the government occasionally attempts to quell.
Responding to media reports, Minister of Communication René Emmanuel Sadi issued a statement on June 18, refuting claims that the Cameroonian head of state was hospitalized in a Geneva clinic.
The Cameroonian opposition views this presidential hiatus as indicative of a profound “institutional vacuum.” Mamadou Mota, Vice-President of the Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon (MRC), articulated this concern on Facebook just last Friday.
“On Autopilot”
In mid-July, Patricia Tomaïno Ndam Njoya, who presides over the Democratic Union of Cameroon (UDC), urged the government to establish an “impartial procedure for determining the temporary or permanent incapacitation” of the head of state.
James Fame Ndongo, a prominent figure within the presidential party and Minister of Higher Education, swiftly dismissed accusations of a power vacuum on Tuesday. He asserted that “wherever he is, the head of state meticulously follows the files submitted to him by his collaborators.”
Debates surrounding the potential vacancy of power in Cameroon are a recurring theme. The most recent controversy arose in late 2024, when President Biya spent approximately fifty days outside the country.
With a touch of irony, the Social Democratic Front (SDF), another opposition party, declared on Friday that Cameroon was effectively “on autopilot.”
These frequent absences, spanning over two decades, consistently fuel frustration among many Cameroonians grappling with governmental inertia. Viviane Ondoua Biwolé, a professor of public management at the University of Yaoundé, observed that “people are already exhausted from waiting.”
She further explained, “Firstly, because the current government has been in power for eight years, setting a record. Secondly, because we are emerging from an election with very mixed results. Many believe that after an election, it is time for renewal.”
His most recent re-election to an eighth term was followed by protests that were violently suppressed, with the government acknowledging “several dozen” deaths without providing an exact toll.
The election results, vehemently contested by the opposition, had also drawn considerable reservations from Western diplomatic missions.
Two months subsequent to that, in his address to the Nation on December 31, President Biya had pledged to form a new governmental team “in the coming days.”
Yet, seven months have passed, and the new government he announced remains unformed. This delay is compounded by repeated postponements of municipal and legislative elections, indefinitely extending the terms of incumbent officials.
The Post-Biya Era Speculation
Despite these challenges, the Cameroonian government recently initiated some institutional changes, including the replacement of the presidents of both parliamentary chambers in March, followed by the constitutional reform in early May that established a Vice-Presidential post.
However, nearly three months after the reform, no Vice-President has been appointed. This prolonged anticipation has inevitably fueled widespread speculation.
In June, an individual appeared at the public radio headquarters in Yaoundé, attempting to submit a document purported to be a presidential decree appointing the Vice-President of the Republic.
Although the fraudulent document bore presidential seals and a signature attributed to President Biya, alert journalists recognized its inauthenticity and refrained from broadcasting it, though it still contributed to the ongoing rumors.
Such institutional maneuvers only intensify speculation regarding the post-Biya era and appear to accelerate the race for his succession, a process currently shrouded in considerable uncertainty.
Professor Ondoua Biwolé affirmed that “there is a more or less visible crisis at the apex of the state among the President’s close associates.”
Political scientist Stéphane Akoa corroborated this, stating, “Increasingly, indiscretions point to quarrels between various factions within his inner circle.”
Akoa noted that behind one of these “clans” looms the influence of First Lady Chantal Biya, who is “increasingly present in state affairs,” with “her name frequently mentioned in top-level decision-making and appointments.”
Until a Vice-President is officially appointed, the responsibility to assume interim leadership in the event of a power vacuum falls to the President of the Senate, Aboubakary Abdoulaye, pending the organization of a presidential election.
