Analyses

Mali’s overreliance on mercenaries sparks security collapse

When Mali’s military leadership invited Russian mercenaries to the country in 2021, their primary focus shifted toward suppressing Tuareg rebels in the northern regions. Analysts now argue that this strategic misstep allowed jihadist factions—particularly the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS)—to consolidate power, […]

Analyses

Africa Corps’ Kidal statement: a strategic pivot in northern Mali

Beneath the surface of military justifications, a recent statement from Russian-aligned forces, the Africa Corps, unveils a politically charged reality. Reading between the lines, it becomes clear that Russian operators are subtly preparing public opinion for a substantial strategic pivot in northern Mali. Two significant possibilities are now emerging from this unfolding situation, offering crucial […]

A la Une Actualités Analyses

The decline of russian influence in africa: a strategic retreat

The fading promise of Russian security solutions Following a decade marked by rapid expansion through mercenary operations, disinformation campaigns, and anti-Western populism, the Kremlin’s African strategy now confronts an insurmountable reality. Unfulfilled security guarantees, military entanglements, and growing public discontent suggest that the notion of a declining Russian imperialism on the continent is no longer […]

Analyses

A malian alliance: jnim and fla’s evolving partnership

In Mali, a critical question persists concerning the evolving alliance between Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) and the Front de Libération de l’Azawad (FLA). This partnership holds significant implications for regional stability and security dynamics. Analysts and observers are closely examining the nature of this collaboration, seeking to understand its strategic depth and operational […]

Analyses

Senegal’s constitutional reform: how Ousmane Sonko stands to gain

In a bold move reshaping Senegal’s political landscape, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has vowed to redistribute executive powers through sweeping constitutional reforms. His declarations, made during a press briefing on National Day last year, signaled a clear intent to shift authority away from the presidency toward strengthened institutions—including a powerful Prime Minister, reinforced ministers, and […]

Analyses

Mali : l’offensive djihadiste et rebelle fait vaciller la junte et fragilise le modèle sécuritaire russe

Marie DE VRIES, chercheuse à l’Institut FMES Les attaques coordonnées du JNIM et du FLA le 25 avril 2026 marquent une rupture stratégique depuis 2012. En frappant simultanément Bamako, Kati, Kidal, Gao et Sévaré, les deux groupes ont mis en évidence l’épuisement d’un modèle sécuritaire fondé sur l’appui de partenaires extérieurs. La reprise de Kidal […]

Analyses

The Sahel’s difficult choice: should Mali negotiate with jihadist groups?

Following the coordinated assaults on April 25 and 26 that targeted Bamako, Kati, Gao, Sévaré, and Kidal, a previously unspoken question has re-emerged in Malian security discussions: should dialogue be initiated with jihadist groups? Given the extensive nature of the offensive, jointly executed by Jnim (Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin), an Al-Qaïda affiliate, and the Tuareg […]