Rapid urbanization, as confirmed by the 2024 general population and housing census, is reshaping Morocco’s electoral landscape. While suburban areas expand and historic city centers shrink, the ratio of eligible voters per deputy now reveals unprecedented disparities. Here’s a closer look at the technical, geographic, and political tensions looming over the September 2026 legislative elections.
How census data exposes electoral representation flaws
The 2024 census data reveals sweeping demographic shifts in Morocco. Over the past decade, urban peripheries have surged in growth while historic city centers have declined, and rural areas have stagnated. These changes raise a critical question: does the current electoral map ensure fair representation for all citizens in the 2026 legislative elections?
When cross-referencing demographic data with electoral boundaries, stark disparities emerge in voter-to-deputy ratios across the country. The electoral system in Morocco operates under two key principles:
- Demographic proportionality: adjusting the number of seats based on population size.
- Territorial equity: ensuring a minimum of two seats per province to prevent underrepresentation in sparsely populated or remote regions.
Urban sprawl skews voter-deputy ratios from 1:3 to 1:214
The tension between these two principles has created extreme contrasts in representation. In sparsely populated southern provinces, the ratio of eligible voters per deputy remains remarkably low:
- Aousserd: 2,992 eligible voters per deputy
- Tarfaya: 5,368 eligible voters per deputy
- Assa-Zag: 10,178 eligible voters per deputy
- Es-Semara: 19,712 eligible voters per deputy
- Boujdour: 20,185 eligible voters per deputy
Meanwhile, in booming urban agglomerations and their expanding suburbs, the ratios are strikingly high:
- Tanger-Assilah: 213,980 eligible voters per deputy
- Ménara (Marrakech): 176,256 eligible voters per deputy
- Sidi Bernoussi (Casablanca): 174,501 eligible voters per deputy
- Nouaceur (Casablanca periphery): 155,172 eligible voters per deputy
- Inezgane-Aït Melloul: 151,978 eligible voters per deputy
This means a vote cast in Aousserd carries far more weight in electing a deputy than one cast in Tanger or Marrakech.
Rural decline vs. urban expansion: the demographic divide
The 2024 census confirms Morocco’s accelerating urbanization. Out of a total population of 36,828,330, urban residents now number 23,110,108—a rise of nearly 2.68 million over a decade. In contrast, the rural population stands at 13,718,222, growing by just 302,419 in the same period. A staggering 71.2% of Moroccans now live in just five regions: Grand Casablanca-Settat, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, Marrakech-Safi, Fès-Meknès, and Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma.
The census also highlights a notable trend: the exodus from historic city centers to peripheral municipalities. For example, Casablanca-Anfa’s population plummeted by nearly 25% in a decade, dropping from 453,000 to 332,000 residents. Yet, it retains its four seats, translating to a ratio of 68,707 eligible voters per deputy.
On the other hand, the province of Nouaceur, on the outskirts of Casablanca, saw its population double to 665,000 over the same period. With only three seats, its voter-to-deputy ratio stands at 155,172 eligible voters per deputy.
A similar pattern emerges in Rabat, where the urban core’s seats—such as Rabat-Océan and Rabat-Chellah—have ratios of 55,856 and 59,598 eligible voters per deputy, respectively. Meanwhile, the rapidly growing periphery of Skhirat-Témara has a ratio of 141,832 eligible voters per deputy.
Redrawing electoral boundaries: a high-stakes political gamble
Adjusting the electoral map to align with the 2024 census data involves complex political decisions ahead of the 2026 elections. If the Interior Ministry opts to rebalance seats without increasing the total number of deputies in the Chamber of Representatives, it would require redistributing seats from declining urban centers like Anfa to expanding peripheries like Nouaceur or Skhirat-Témara.
However, reducing the number of seats in a constituency intensifies electoral competition. Fewer seats favor established parties with substantial financial resources and robust mobilization networks, such as the current coalition partners RNI, PAM, and Istiqlal. Conversely, a higher number of seats per constituency lowers the threshold for smaller parties to secure parliamentary representation through the “largest remainder” method.
The rural anchor: participation vs. abstention dynamics
Despite urban growth, many city-dwelling voters remain registered and cast ballots in their rural hometowns to preserve local influence. This explains the traditionally high turnout in rural areas, sometimes exceeding 90% of registered voters, in stark contrast to the high abstention rates in urban centers. In some middle-class urban constituencies, abstention can soar to 70-80%.
These trends underscore the dual challenge of updating electoral rolls: registering new voters while correcting residency data for those who have moved from urban centers to fast-growing peripheries. The ongoing revision campaigns aim to sanitize the electoral file and improve its reliability ahead of the September 23, 2026, legislative elections.
2026 elections: can the class divide reshape political balances?
The demographic realities highlighted by the 2024 census present strategic challenges for the upcoming elections. The middle class, hit hard by inflation and feeling sidelined by recent targeted social reforms, largely abstained in 2021. Their potential return to the polls in 2026—whether as a protest vote or in favor of alternative platforms—could disrupt current political equilibria.
Meanwhile, political forces must navigate a post-inflation landscape. The ruling coalition parties will need to defend their economic and social records, while opposition groups like the PJD seek to capitalize on urban discontent and reconnect with their base, disillusioned by past local governance failures.
Ultimately, reconciling the demographic realities of the 2024 census with territorial equity will require a delicate balancing act from policymakers. Though no official announcement on electoral boundary revisions has been made, the new population data has already set the stage for an inevitable technical and political debate ahead of the 2026 legislative elections.
