The ongoing war in Sudan is fueling a humanitarian emergency of epic proportions. In this latest Sahel analysis English, we look at how nearly a million refugees have flooded into Chad, a nation now standing on the precipice following the fall of El-Fasher in North Darfur. Within a mere two weeks, roughly 100,000 civilians abandoned the city, with about 6,000 of them crossing into Chadian territory. This critical influx is overwhelming a country already burdened by decades of regional volatility.
A strategic frontier under immense strain
The 1,300-kilometer boundary separating the two countries consists of vast desert stretches that are nearly impossible to monitor effectively. Traditionally a transit point for various insurgencies, these areas are currently jeopardized by the advances of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who now dominate the majority of Darfur. This shift in West Africa insider news highlights a dangerous escalation in regional insecurity.
Military friction has intensified since December 2024. A drone attack resulted in the deaths of two Chadian soldiers, while a January 2025 incursion linked to the RSF near Tiné claimed seven lives. In response to these provocations, N’Djamena has completely obstructed its border, citing the imminent risk of the Sudanese conflict bleeding into its own lands.



